A simple explanation of Point & Figure charts, the Wyckoff method, and how this tool predicts where prices are headed.
When you look at a stock chart, you see price going up and down over time. Every day gets a candle, whether the price moved $10 or $0.01. This means 90% of the chart is noise — days where nothing important happened.
What if you could remove all the noise and only see the moves that matter?
That's exactly what a Point & Figure chart does.
Point & Figure (P&F) charts were invented in the 1880s by Charles Dow — yes, the same Dow from the Dow Jones. They are older than candlestick charts, older than bar charts, older than almost everything in technical analysis.
The idea is dead simple:
X = price went UP by a meaningful amount
O = price went DOWN by a meaningful amount
Nothing = price didn't move enough to care about
You set a "box size" — say $1. The chart only records a new X when price goes up $1, or a new O when price goes down $1. Days where price wiggles inside that $1 range? Ignored. Doesn't appear on the chart.
The result: a chart that only shows supply and demand, stripped of time and noise.
A column of X's means buyers are in control. A column of O's means sellers are winning. When the column switches from X to O (or back), it means the balance of power shifted.
In the 1930s, a Wall Street legend named Richard Wyckoff had a radical idea. He said:
Wyckoff didn't think the market was random. He believed it was a campaign — run by smart money — and that the footprints of this campaign were visible in price and volume if you knew where to look.
His method? Study the phases of this campaign, and you'll know what's coming next.
Every market moves in a cycle of four phases:
Smart money quietly buys. Price goes sideways. The public thinks the stock is dead. This is the "cause" being built — the wider this range, the bigger the eventual move up.
Price breaks out and trends up. The news turns positive. The public starts buying. Smart money rides the trend.
Smart money quietly sells to the eager public. Price goes sideways again at the top. Everyone is bullish. This is the "cause" for the coming decline.
Price breaks down. Bad news appears. The public panics and sells at a loss. Smart money waits for prices to get cheap again.
Then the cycle repeats. Forever. In stocks, crypto, commodities, forex — the same four phases, over and over.
Wyckoff identified specific events that happen during accumulation (the same events, mirrored, happen during distribution):
This is real price data. Oil dropped from $107 to $26 (distribution → markdown), then built a massive accumulation base from 2015–2021 before exploding to $130.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) — REAL P&F CHART
10% box, 3-box reversal · Weekly data · Oct 2020 – Jan 2023
Each X = price up 10% Each O = price down 10%
BC UTAD
Buying Climax Upthrust $61K
$58K, euphoric FALSE breakout
peak, "BTC to above BC, traps
$100K!" late buyers
↓ ↓
$66K │ X │
$60K │ X X O │
$54K │ X X O X O │
$49K │ X O X O X X O │
$45K │ X O X O X O X O X X X │
$41K │X X O O X X O X O X O X O X O │
$37K │X O X X O X O X O O X O X O X O │
$34K │X O X O X O X O X O X O O O │
$30K │X O X O X O X O X O O X │
$28K │X O O O O O X O │
$25K │X O X O │
$23K │X O O X X │
$21K │X O X O X │
$19K │X O X O X │
$17K │X O O X │
$15K │X O X │
$14K │X O │
$13K │X │
$11K │X │
╰────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
↑ ↑ ↑
AR ST SOW
Automatic Reaction Secondary Test Sign of Weakness
$37K, sharp -36% $30K, retests $17K, markdown
drop, first sign support on begins, confirms
of selling lower volume distribution, -78%
2020 2021 2022
├─markup─┤←── Phase A ──→├──── Phase B (distributing) ────→├← C→├── Phase D + E ──→│Distribution is the mirror image of accumulation. Instead of smart money buying at the bottom, they're selling at the top. Same structure, opposite direction:
Bitcoin rallied from $10K to $65K in 2020–2021 (markup). Then smart money distributed at the top. Same pattern, opposite direction.
Now the same Bitcoin data shown as a standard price chart — notice the same events (BC, AR, UTAD, SOW) but harder to read without the P&F structure:
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) — SAME PERIOD, MONTHLY CLOSES
$61K · · · BC UTAD
$58K · · · · ╱ ╱
$47K · · · · ·╱· · ╱
$43K · · · · · · · · ╱
$38K · · · · · · · · · ╱
$33K · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
$29K · · · · · ·
$23K · · · · · ·
$20K · · · · · · · · ·
$17K · · · ·
╰──┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬─────┬──
Mar'21 Jun Sep Dec'21 Mar Jun'22 Sep Dec
This looks like random noise. But the P&F chart above
reveals the STRUCTURE: distribution (BC → AR → UTAD → crash).
That's the power of P&F — it removes time and shows
only supply vs demand.They look similar — both are sideways ranges with tests. But there's one critical difference:
Happens after a decline. Volume is highest at SC (beginning) and dries up through Phase B. The Spring goes below support. Smart money is buying.
Happens after an advance. Volume is highest at BC (beginning) and dries up through Phase B. The UTAD goes above resistance. Smart money is selling.
The volume pattern tells you who's in control. In accumulation, big volume at the bottom means smart money is absorbing supply. In distribution, big volume at the top means smart money is dumping into demand.
Sometimes price doesn't go straight from accumulation to the final target. It pauses along the way and builds a smaller range — a "stepping stone." This is called re-accumulation.
Why does this matter? Because if the stepping stone count confirms the original count, you know the analysis is working. Two independent measurements pointing to the same target = very high probability.
Re-distribution is the same concept in reverse — a pause during a markdown where smart money distributes more stock before the decline continues.
Here's where P&F and Wyckoff come together — and this is the magic:
The wider the accumulation zone (the "cause"),
the further the price will travel (the "effect").
Think of it like a spring being compressed. The longer you compress it (wider accumulation), the further it'll shoot when released (bigger markup).
On a P&F chart, you can measure the width of the accumulation by counting columns. Then multiply by box size and reversal amount. The result? A price target.
Bruce Fraser at Wyckoff Analytics has been teaching this method for decades. His price targets on oil, stocks, and crypto have been remarkably accurate — typically hitting 60-80% of the time.
Until now, the counting process was entirely manual. Practitioners would print a P&F chart, count columns by hand, do the math on paper. It takes hours and is error-prone.
This tool automates the entire process:
Enter a symbol. Get your targets. In seconds, not hours.
P&F targets are guidelines, not certainties. They tell you WHERE price might pause or reverse — not WHEN. Always combine with your own analysis. Markets can and do behave irrationally. Past patterns don't guarantee future results.
This tool is for educational and analytical purposes. It implements the methodology as taught by Richard Wyckoff, Hank Pruden, Bruce Fraser, and Jeremy du Plessis. The calculations are mechanical — the interpretation is yours.